#31 - Deciding, Acting, Maneuvering
Deciding and Acting
I’ve been writing as though firefighters survived the Pagami Creek Fire because they made good decisions. But, is “decision-making” the right word? Let’s take a closer look.
In some cases, people did indeed deliberate, weigh options, then make a conscious choice. Those were fully formed decisions.
But, in some cases it was more like they recognized what to do (this may not technically be decision-making).
And in some cases—many cases—they were just in the moment, making moves. You might call this “reacting,” “instinct,” “impulse” or “taking a shot in the dark.”
If you want to include all the kinds of action that mattered on Pagami, then the word “decision-making” is too narrow. People made a lot of important moves that probably weren’t full-on decisions. And we want a term that includes those.
By the way, I think when we are speaking informally, it’s fine to throw around terms like “decision-making.” I did that in earlier posts—it’s a good enough term when you are just trying to tell a story.
But now it’s time to sharpen our focus and get more exact. We need a better word.
Alright, the term “decision-making” is too narrow, so how about “acting?” That term is not wrong. But it’s too broad—the bull in a china shop is taking action. When you have the hiccups, that’s action. So is sleep walking. We want a term that’s more precise.
Maneuvering
The Pagami stories were about firefighters interacting with their environment—and their environment was highly dynamic. The best word I know for that is “maneuvering.”
(If you like another word better, let me know in the comments.)
The essential point is: On Pagami, firefighters created safety and Operational Resilience through skillful maneuvering.
We can leave for another time the question of how much was deliberative decision-making, recognition-primed, habit, instinct, impulse … or whatever. “Maneuvering” can include all of those; but it excludes mindless thrashing and pure luck.
Great! What Now?
Now the question is: What can you do if you want to maneuver successfully in a Dynamic, Ambiguous, Risky, Complex (DARC) environment?
Here’s where things get tricky.
You’ve probably heard the saying, “If it’s predictable, it’s preventable.” That may be true; you should absolutely predict and prevent what you can. The saying definitely applies when you are operating in a Safe, Straightforward, Safe, and Simple (4S) world.
But a DARC environment is not predictable. By definition, a DARC environment means you can’t write enough rules for it, don’t have enough tools for it, can’t define everything that’s going on … yet you need to maneuver effectively within it.
All this means that the 4S mentality of prediction, prevention, control—even the tools of formal decision-making—those will only get you so far when you have to maneuver in the DARC.
So how do you prepare?
Surfing Photo by Drew Farwell on Unsplash